Invasion of the Ballot Snatchers (chapter summary)

Mail-in ballot return data reveal a striking and persistent disparity between parties, with Republican voters who requested and were approved for mail-in ballots failing to return them at nearly twice the rate of Democrats statewide. Controlling for voter age, county of residence, and application type does little to narrow the gap. The gaps are wider among earlier applicants, while county-by-county comparisons show the pattern to be widespread across the state. Although some non-returns may reflect ballot surrender at polling places or replacement by provisional voting, available data indicate that such explanations likely account for only a fraction of the observed discrepancy. The magnitude and pervasiveness of the differential non-return rates raise unresolved questions about whether they reflect voter behavior or supply-side vulnerabilities affecting ballot delivery, chain-of-custody, administrative handling, reinforcing concerns about structural weaknesses.