About the book
THE BIG FLIP examines Pennsylvania’s 2020 presidential election through a lens largely absent from public debate: the “supply side” mechanics of mail-in voting.
In 2016, Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Donald Trump. In 2020, it flipped back to the Democratic column, with Joe Biden securing a decisive advantage among mail-in voters. That reversal occurred in the first statewide election conducted under Pennsylvania’s new no-excuse mail-in voting law, PA Act 77, enacted in 2019.
Rather than focusing on claims of election fraud or on partisan rhetoric, THE BIG FLIP investigates the administrative architecture behind the vote—how ballots were requested, processed, distributed, returned, tracked, and counted. The book argues that Pennsylvania dramatically expanded its mail-in voting system without incorporating safeguards proportionate to the vulnerabilities such expansion introduced.
The narrative begins with the legislative history of Act 77. Originally aimed at eliminating straight-ticket voting, the bill evolved into sweeping reform authorizing universal mail-in ballots. Despite well-documented concerns about cybersecurity and election system vulnerabilities—highlighted by the Pennsylvania Blue Ribbon Commission, the Pennsylvania Auditor General, and research institutions— the law introduced no new security mechanisms tailored to large-scale mail voting.
As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, additional flexibility was layered onto this new framework. Litigation during the summer and fall of 2020 materially altered election procedures. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court extended the ballot receipt deadline three days beyond Election Day, permitted widespread use of drop boxes despite the absence of statutory standards, and prohibited rejection of ballots based on signature comparison. The Court also removed the Green Party presidential ticket from the ballot in a ruling that delayed ballot printing and distribution. The cumulative effect of these judicial interventions, combined with legislative gaps in Act 77, reshaped ballot collection, verification, and distribution rules and timing shortly before the election, with broader implications about the legitimacy and fairness of resolving electoral policy through litigation.
The analytical core of the book presents a detailed statistical examination of Pennsylvania’s county-level data, supplemented with material obtained through Right-to-Know Law requests. Several unusual patterns emerge. Between mid-August and Labor Day 2020, there was a notable surge in paper mail-in ballot applications from Democratic voters across most counties, materially affecting the composition of the mail-in vote. A disproportionately high share of mail-in ballots requested by Republican voters were never returned and counted, and among those that were returned, Republicans systematically submitted their ballots later than Democrats across counties.
The book does not claim to establish that the election was stolen, nor does it present direct evidence of coordinated fraud. Instead, it demonstrates that the patterns observed are consistent with a range of hypothetical scenarios—the more worrisome of which are made more plausible by structural vulnerabilities in the system.
A central theme throughout is the distinction between “demand side” and “supply side” voting. Traditional in-person elections largely depend on individual voter choice—who votes and for whom. Mail-in systems expand the administrative supply chain of voting, encompassing database management, ballot application handling, printing operations, mail delivery, drop-box collection, and centralized counting. Each additional layer introduces new potential failure points, magnifying the importance of institutional safeguards.
The final chapters address the public discourse that followed the election. The widely cited assertion that 2020 was “the most secure election in American history” referred primarily to voting machine security and paper audit trails, not to the broader architecture of mail-in ballot systems. The book argues that dismissing structural concerns outright has impeded serious reform and weakened public trust.
THE BIG FLIP concludes with forward-looking recommendations designed to strengthen election integrity without reducing access. It advocates stronger voter roll maintenance and duplicate detection, real-time anomaly monitoring of ballot data, uniform statewide drop-box standards, robust chain-of-custody procedures, transparent signature verification processes with cure opportunities, and enhanced cybersecurity auditing of registration and ballot systems.
The central thesis is measured but firm: Pennsylvania’s rapid expansion of mail-in voting created vulnerabilities disproportionate to the safeguards enacted. Even absent definitive proof of misconduct, credible structural weaknesses and unexplained statistical irregularities can erode public confidence. Durable trust in elections requires not rhetorical assurances, but institutional resilience.
Grounded in quantitative analysis and legislative review rather than partisan advocacy, THE BIG FLIP offers a data-driven case study of how electoral systems can evolve faster than their security architecture—and why preventative reform is essential for the long-term credibility of American democracy.
