On the Road (chapter summary)

Provisional ballots assumed an expanded role in Pennsylvania’s 2020 election as a substitute voting mechanism for individuals who had requested mail-in ballots but had not received them or were uncertain whether the completed and returned ballots had been duly received. Statewide data show that more than 105,000 provisional ballots were cast, with a large share submitted by voters who had previously applied for mail-in ballots, suggesting that provisional voting partially offset the impact of unreturned mail ballots. County-level comparisons between provisional ballots submitted and provisional votes recorded reveal “trade imbalances,” with some counties functioning as major exporters or importers of provisional votes as mobile voters deposited ballots outside their county of registration. Several counties exhibit extreme outlier patterns—such as nearly all provisional ballots being exported or unusually high replacement rates relative to unreturned mail ballots—raising questions about voter mobility, administrative practices, and localized anomalies in provisional voting activity.