The Summer Harvest (chapter summary)

Analysis of detailed mail-in ballot application data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State through a Right-to-Know request reveals a pronounced late-summer surge in paper applications from Democratic voters across most counties. While online application activity followed broadly similar trajectories for Democrats and Republicans, paper applications from Democrats accelerated sharply in mid-to-late August—peaking in many counties by late August or early September—producing a front-loaded pattern not mirrored by Republican voters. County-level normalization and weekly rate comparisons show that this dynamic was widespread but not universal, with a distinct cohort of counties exhibiting no comparable early spike. The divergence between paper and online behaviors, and between parties, supports the interpretation that organized, supply-side mobilization efforts— rather than spontaneous voter enthusiasm alone—played a decisive role in shaping early mail-in ballot application volumes and, by extension, the composition of the eventual mail-in vote.